Unchecked population growth is speeding climate change, damaging life-nurturing ecosystems and dooming many countries to poverty, experts concluded in a conference report released Monday.
Unless birth rates are lowered sharply through voluntary family-planning programmes and easy access to contraceptives, the tally of humans on Earth could swell to an unsustainable 11 billion by 2050, they warned
When it’s separated from contraception, with which I don’t have a problem, it doesn’t mean “advanced planning.” It’s a catchall that suggests abortion.
The thing is, however, is that the world population isn’t exploding. I’m not sure how, in the face of indisputable facts, someone could make that claim, unless they’re really desperate to sell carbon credits. Van Jones already admitted the real goal of the green movement.
Sub-replacement fertility is a fertility rate that is not high enough to replace an area’s population. Sub-replacement fertility is approximately 2.1 children per woman’s life time.
Today about half the world lives in nations with sub-replacement fertility. All the nations East Asia, with the exceptions Mongolia, The Philippines, and Laos are below. Russia and Eastern Europe are in most cases quite dramatically below replacement fertility. Western Europe also is below replacement. In the Middle East Iran, Tunisia, Algeria, Turkey, and Lebanon are below replacement. Canada,Australia, and New Zealand are similar to Western Europe, while the United States is just barely below replacement with about 2.0 births per woman. All four of these nations still have growing populations due to high rates of immigration. The countries having the lowest fertility are Hong Kong, Macao,Singapore and Lithuania.
There have been a number of explanations for the general decline in fertility rates in much of the world, and the true explanation is almost certainly a combination of different factors.
The increase of urbanization around the world is considered by many a central cause. Throughout human history urbanareas have had below replacement fertility. Cities have higher land values, making a large family more expensive, the need for extra labour from children is also far less useful than on farms. Higher rates of disease also reduce urban fertility somewhat. Rural areas also tend to be more conservative with less contraception and abortion than urban areas.
The latest data from the Population Reference Bureau shows that there are twenty countries in the world with negative or zero natural population growth. This is unprecedented in history!
This negative or zero natural population growth means that these countries have more deaths than births or an even number of deaths and births; this figure does not include the impacts of immigration or emigration. Even including immigration over emigration, only one of the twenty countries (Austria) is expected to grow between 2006 and 2050.
The country with the highest decrease in the natural birth rate is Ukraine, with a natural decrease of 0.8% each year. Ukraine is expected to lose 28% of their population between now and 2050 (from 46.8 million now to 33.4 million in 2050).
Russia and Belarus follow close behind at a 0.6% natural decrease and Russia will lose 22% of their population by 2050 – that is a loss of more than 30 million people (from 142.3 million today to 110.3 million in 2050).
Japan is the only non-European country in the list and it has a 0% natural birth increase and is expected to lose 21% of its population by 2050 (shrinking from 127.8 million to a mere 100.6 million in 2050). The streets of Tokyo won’t be as crowded in a few decades as they are today!
Here’s the list of the countries with negative natural increase or zero negative increase in population…
Ukraine: 0.8% natural decrease annually; 28% total population decrease by 2050
Russia: -0.6%; -22%
Belarus -0.6%; -12%
Bulgaria -0.5%; -34%
Latvia -0.5%; -23%
Lithuania -0.4%; -15%
Hungary -0.3%; -11%
Romania -0.2%; -29%
Estonia -0.2%; -23%
Moldova -0.2%; -21%
Croatia -0.2%; -14%
Germany -0.2%; -9%
Czech Republic -0.1%; -8%
Japan 0%; -21%
Poland 0%; -17%
Slovakia 0%; -12%
Austria 0%; 8% increase
Italy 0%; -5%
Slovenia 0%; -5%
Greece 0%; -4%
WASHINGTON, June 20, 2007 (RFE/RL) — Countries in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union are facing an economic crisis of unprecedented proportion because their populations are rapidly aging and shrinking at the same time.
The World Bank has issued a new report that warns that the entire region’s economic progress could come to a grinding halt by 2025, unless governments act quickly to institute reforms. RFE/RL correspondent Heather Maher interviewed Gordon Betcherman, one of the World Bank economists who authored the report, “From Red To Grey: ‘The Third Transition’ of Aging Populations In Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union.”
These are the number to which you pay attention when discussing population: the age of the population and the population growth rate. From the U.S. Census:
The U.S. population growth rate is slowing.
Despite these large increases in the number of persons in the population, the rate of population growth, referred to as the average annual percent change,1 is projected to decrease during the next six decades by about 50 percent, from 1.10 between 1990 and 1995 to 0.54 between 2040 and 2050. The decrease in the rate of growth is predominantly due to the aging of the population and, consequently, a dramatic increase in the number of deaths. From 2030 to 2050, the United States would grow more slowly than ever before in its history.
The U.S. population will be older than it is now.
In all of the projection series, the future age structure of the population will be older than it is now. In the middle series, the median age of the population will steadily increase from 34.0 in 1994 to 35.5 in 2000, peak at 39.1 in 2035, then decrease slightly to 39.0 by 2050. This increasing median age is driven by the aging of the population born during the Baby Boom after World War II (1946 to 1964). About 30 percent of the population in 1994 were born during the Baby Boom. As this population ages, the median age will rise. People born during the Baby Boom will be between 36 and 54 years old at the turn of the century. In 2011, the first members of the Baby Boom will reach age 65, and the Baby Boom will have decreased to 25 percent of the total population (in the middle series). The last of the Baby-Boom population will reach age 65 in the year 2029. By that time, the Baby-Boom population is projected to be only about 16 percent of the total population.
Basically, the United States looks to be the only one of the top-tier nations that will maintain its growth rate. European countries are not and poor Italy, as Mark Steyn wrote, will lose its image if big families around the dinner table in just a couple generations. He says Europe is in a “death spiral.” He’s right. Statistically, we’re on the cusp.