Rasmussen Conducting Special Brown v. Coakley Poll Tonight

I’d emailed Rasmussen and his people earlier to ask whether or not they would be polling. They said yes, but no ETA until now:

Pollster Scott Rasmussen confirms to me that his company will be polling the special U.S. Senate election in Massachusetts tonight. It will be the first scientific poll in the state since before the December primary, when Attorney General Martha Coakley and State Senator Scott Brown won, respectively, the Democratic and Republican nominations.

Dems will likely discount it unless it shows Coakley in the lead.

*UPDATE: results in:

State Attorney General Martha Coakley holds a nine-point lead over her Republican rival, state Senator Scott Brown, in Massachusetts’ special U.S. Senate election to fill the seat of the late Edward M. Kennedy.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state finds Coakley ahead of Brown 50% to 41%. One percent (1%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.

Validating what we all thought: that Brown can win this race. Especially if you consider:

The health care issue is expected to play a big role in the debate and Massachusetts voters hold modestly favorable attitudes about the proposed legislation. In the Bay State, 53% favor the plan working its way through Congress and 45% oppose it.

However, as is the case nationally, those who feel strongly about the bill are more likely to be opposed. The overall figures include 36% who Strongly Oppose the plan while 27% Strongly Favor it.

This will be a referendum on fauxcare.

The independent voters is what will get Coakley:

Both candidates get better than 70% of the vote from members of their respective parties, but Brown leads 65% to 21% among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties.

This dovetails with earlier polling which showed that the number of people identifying themselves as Democrats is dropping; also it’s the rise of the independents. Independents are also the group which played the deciding role in the Virginia race last year.

I’m surprised that SEIU-corrupt Coakley hasn’t used the specter of Kennedy to try to win a seat to push legislation that the majority oppose.

Previously:

Martha Coakley Leaves for Vacay 20 Days Before Election

What Irony: Could Democrats Lose Kennedy’s Seat

Meet the New Doug Hoffman